Atlantic Saw Flurry of Hurricane Activity in Late August

The Atlantic saw a flurry of hurricane activity in late August, analysts at Standard Charted said in a report sent to Rigzone earlier this week.

“Four tropical storms formed within a 39-hour timeframe from August 20-22, followed by another two systems in the last week of the month (including Hurricane Idalia, which peaked at Category Four),” the analysts stated in the report.

“September is the climatological peak of the normal hurricane season, but the forecast is calm for now. One feature currently worth monitoring is a disturbance in the central tropical Atlantic that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has assigned a 100 percent chance of cyclone formation within 48 hours,” they added.

“The system could strengthen further into a hurricane (likely to be named Hurricane Lee) later in the week, when it is projected to move over western portions of the tropical Atlantic towards the Leeward Islands,” the analysts continued.

At the time of writing, the NHC is tracking a hurricane named Lee in the Atlantic. As of 5am AST, this hurricane had maximum sustained winds of 80 miles per hour and a 13 mile per hour west-northwesterly movement, the NHC site showed.

“Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane early Friday, with its core moving north of the northern Leeward islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and into early next week,” the NHC noted in an advisory posted on its site at 5am AST.

“There is the potential for tropical storm conditions to occur on some of these islands over the weekend, and interests there should monitor future updates to Lee’s forecast,” the advisory added.

“Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions,” the advisory went on to state.

In addition to Hurricane Lee, the NHC is tracking two other unnamed disturbances in the Atlantic at the time of writing. One of these is located in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic and has a 60 percent chance of cyclone formation in 48 hours and the other is situated in the Northeastern Atlantic and has a 20 percent chance of cyclone formation in 48 hours, the site outlines.

A statement posted on the NHC website at 7.45am EDT on August 30 highlighted that the “extremely dangerous Category 3 Hurricane Idalia” had made landfall in the Florida Big Bend.

In a report posted on its website on the same day, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that Hurricane Idalia was impacting U.S. Gulf Coast production and pipeline facilities.

Also on August 30, in a release posted on its website, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced that EPA Administrator Michael Regan issued an emergency fuel waiver “to address a fuel supply emergency in Florida caused by Hurricane Idalia”.

The hurricane also affected some Chevron and Kinder Morgan operations and knocked out power for hundreds of thousands of customers in Florida.

In a statement sent to Rigzone on August 31, the American Red Cross highlighted that it pre-positioned more than 400 disaster responders and truckloads of supplies to support the communities impacted by Hurricane Idalia.

Atlantic weather systems have severely affected oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico in the past. For example, at its peak, Hurricane Ida shut in 95.65 percent of Gulf of Mexico oil production on August 29, 2021, and 94.47 percent of Gulf of Mexico gas production on August 31, 2021, BSEE figures show.

In a statement sent to Rigzone last month, Marvin Ma, the Vice President of Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) and author of a new report by the company assessing the impact of Atlantic hurricanes on U.S. Gulf of Mexico output, said, “should a hurricane disrupt oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico, EIR’s mid-impact case estimates 40 percent of total Gulf of Mexico production would be shut in and take seven days to recover”.

“A high-impact case estimates 90 percent shut-in and 16 days to recover,” Ma added in the statement.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com